Global trade patterns are increasingly shaped by geopolitical alliances rather than pure economic efficiency. For instance, the United States has reduced reliance on Chinese imports by rerouting trade through intermediaries like Mexico and Vietnam, while Europe has minimized energy dependencies on Russia through partnerships with the U.S. and regional suppliers . Such realignments reflect a broader trend of "friendshoring," where nations prioritize trade with geopolitically aligned partners to mitigate risks like sanctions or supply disruptions.
Tariff uncertainties further complicate this landscape. Recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, exceeding 145%, have disrupted $300 billion in bilateral trade, forcing companies to seek alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia and Africa . Meanwhile, the WTO warns that escalating tariffs could reduce global merchandise trade by 1.5% in 2025, disproportionately impacting export-dependent developing economies